Talks and Bombs: Israel's Contradictory Lebanon Policy Amidst US-Iran Ceasefire

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday that Israel would open direct negotiations with Lebanon. The goal, he said, is to disarm Hezbollah and establish peaceful relations between the two countries. The announcement came after President Donald Trump asked Netanyahu in a phone call to scale back Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

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Hours later, Netanyahu clarified that there is no ceasefire in Lebanon. Israeli warplanes continued to strike Hezbollah positions across the country. The Israeli military issued fresh evacuation orders for multiple neighborhoods in southern Beirut, including areas that had not previously been targeted. The World Health Organization urged Israel to reverse the order, noting that two major hospitals operating at full capacity fall within the evacuation zone.

This is the contradiction at the heart of the current crisis. Israel wants to negotiate, but also wants to keep fighting. Whether both can happen at the same time is unclear.

The Lebanon Exclusion

The disagreement over Lebanon has threatened the US-Iran ceasefire before the Islamabad talks even begin.

When Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the truce on Tuesday, he stated that the ceasefire applied "everywhere, including Lebanon." Iran has repeated this position consistently. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Thursday that halting the war in Lebanon is "an inseparable part of the ceasefire understanding put forward by Pakistan." Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that continued Israeli strikes carry "explicit costs and STRONG responses," urging Israel to "extinguish the fire immediately."

The United States and Israel disagree. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said flatly that "Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire." Vice President JD Vance described the disagreement as a "legitimate misunderstanding," suggesting that Iran mistakenly believed its proxies were covered. Netanyahu has been even more direct. "There is no ceasefire in Lebanon," he said in a video address. "We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with force, and we will not stop until we restore your security."

European leaders have sided with Iran on this point. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that "the severity with which Israel is waging war there could cause the peace process as a whole to fail." British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Israel's attacks on Lebanon "shouldn't be happening" and that Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas noted that "Israel's right to defend itself does not justify inflicting such massive destruction," adding that it is "hard to argue that such heavy-handed actions fall within self-defense."

The Deadliest Day

The timing of Israel's escalation has drawn particular criticism.

On Wednesday, the day after the US-Iran ceasefire was announced, Israel launched its largest coordinated strike on Lebanon since the war began. The Israeli military said it targeted more than 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites in just ten minutes. Lebanese health authorities reported that at least 303 people were killed and more than 1,150 wounded. It was the deadliest day for Lebanon since the conflict started in early March.

The strikes hit densely populated areas of Beirut without warning. Residential buildings collapsed. Rescue workers searched through rubble for survivors. The Lebanese government announced it would file an urgent complaint with the UN Security Council, accusing Israel of "blatantly violating the principles of international law and international humanitarian law."

Hezbollah has responded with rocket fire toward northern Israel. The Israeli military said it detected rockets launched from Lebanon, with some intercepted and others falling in open areas. Hezbollah vowed that its response "will continue until the Israeli-American aggression against our country and our people ceases."

US-Iran Ceasefire Under Fire

The announcement of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon came under unusual circumstances.

Netanyahu said he had instructed his cabinet to open talks "as soon as possible" in light of "repeated requests" from Lebanon. The negotiations would focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations. An Israeli official and a US official told multiple news outlets that a first meeting could take place as early as next week at the US State Department, with ambassadors from both countries participating.

But Lebanese officials expressed confusion. Two Lebanese officials told CNN that their government had not been officially notified of any invitation. One insisted there would be "no negotiations under fire." Hezbollah dismissed the possibility of talks entirely, with a senior official stating that the Lebanese government does not speak for the group.

The gap between the two sides remains wide. Israel wants Hezbollah disarmed as a precondition for peace. Lebanon's government lacks the authority to disarm the group unilaterally. Hezbollah shows no interest in surrendering its weapons. And all of this is happening while Israeli bombs continue to fall.

Trump's Role

The shift in Israel's position appears to have been driven by American pressure.

Trump told NBC News on Thursday that he had asked Netanyahu to be "a little more low-key" in Lebanon. "I spoke with Bibi, and he's going to low-key it," Trump said. "I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key." A senior administration official confirmed that Trump had asked Netanyahu to scale back the strikes to help ensure the success of the Iran negotiations.

Netanyahu has reason to listen. Trump remains highly popular in Israel, and Netanyahu's political future depends on maintaining that relationship. As one analyst told the New York Times, "Nothing looms larger in his mind than Trump." Whereas Netanyahu paid little price for brushing off demands from President Biden, Trump is a different matter. "'Trump asked me to do this' is a valid excuse with his right flank."

But Netanyahu also has his own objectives. He sees Hezbollah as an existential threat to northern Israel. He has long argued that the group must be disarmed, and he may believe that the current moment of Iranian vulnerability offers a rare opportunity. The question is whether he can pursue that goal without collapsing the broader ceasefire that Trump wants to preserve.

What Comes Next

The path forward is uncertain on multiple fronts.

The US-Iran talks in Islamabad are scheduled for Saturday. Iran has stated that its participation is conditional on the ceasefire being applied to Lebanon. If Israeli strikes continue through the weekend, Tehran may withdraw from the negotiations entirely. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on Thursday that continued attacks on Lebanon "will render negotiations meaningless."

The proposed Israel-Lebanon talks face their own hurdles. Even if both governments agree to meet, Hezbollah's cooperation is not guaranteed. The group has its own military capabilities and its own agenda. It has rejected the possibility of negotiations. And it continues to launch rockets into Israel.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Lebanon worsens. More than one million people have been displaced. Hospitals are overwhelmed. The WHO warned that evacuating two major hospitals in Beirut is "operationally unfeasible" and urged Israel to reverse its order. The last remaining bridge connecting southern Lebanon to the rest of the country has been damaged.